Tampa Bay is drawing the vast majority of moneyline bets against Atlanta, while the total sees potential sharp action on the Under.
TL;DR – Today’s Betting Splits Breakdown
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are heavily favored against the Atlanta Falcons, and the betting splits reflect this, with the vast majority of moneyline handle backing the Buccaneers. There’s a potential contrarian opportunity on the Falcons’ spread, but the strongest signal comes on the total, where the Under is seeing a significant handle percentage despite a minority of tickets, suggesting possible sharp action.
Game Snapshot
The Atlanta Falcons (4-9) visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) on Thursday, December 11, 2025, at 8:15 PM EST. The game will be played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL, with patchy rain nearby and a temperature around 70°F. The Buccaneers are currently favored by 5.5 points, and the total is set at 44.5.
Today’s Sharpest Betting Signals
- Total: The Under (44.5) is drawing a disproportionately high handle percentage (67%) compared to its ticket percentage (44%), indicating a potential sharp money lean.
- Spread: While the Buccaneers are a popular bet, the handle/ticket split doesn’t point to strong value on either side.
Spread – Snapshot & Signals
- Spread: Falcons +5.5 (-115), Buccaneers -5.5 (-105)
- Ticket Percentage: Falcons 22%, Buccaneers 78%
- Handle Percentage: Falcons 16%, Buccaneers 84%
- Smart Money Lean: No strong lean.
- Fade the Public: Not a strong signal. The Buccaneers are heavily backed, but the handle aligns with the ticket count.
Moneyline – Snapshot & Signals
- Moneyline: Falcons +185, Buccaneers -225
- Ticket Percentage: Falcons 14%, Buccaneers 86%
- Handle Percentage: Falcons 7%, Buccaneers 93%
- Smart Money Lean: No strong lean.
- Fade the Public: Not a strong signal. The Buccaneers are heavily backed, and the handle aligns with the ticket count.
Total – Snapshot & Signals
- Total: Over 44.5 (-110), Under 44.5 (-110)
- Ticket Percentage: Over 56%, Under 44%
- Handle Percentage: Over 33%, Under 67%
- Smart Money Lean: Under. The Under is drawing a significantly higher percentage of the handle compared to tickets.
- Fade the Public: Not a strong signal on the Over.
Spread Opportunity Analysis
The Buccaneers are a clear public side in this matchup, drawing a large majority of both tickets and handle. However, the lack of significant line movement suggests that the current spread of -5.5 is efficiently priced. There isn’t a compelling contrarian angle on the Falcons, as the handle isn’t strongly in their favor despite the lopsided ticket count.
Moneyline Opportunity Analysis
Similar to the spread, the moneyline is heavily skewed towards the Buccaneers, with the public overwhelmingly backing them to win. The lack of a significant handle discrepancy suggests that the current price of -225 on the Buccaneers is a fair reflection of their implied win probability. There’s no strong reason to fade the public here, as the market seems to be in agreement.
Total Opportunity Analysis
The total presents the most interesting opportunity in this game. While the majority of tickets are on the Over, a significant portion of the handle is on the Under. This suggests that sharper bettors may be anticipating a lower-scoring game than the public expects. If you’re considering a play on the total, the Under at 44.5 may be worth a look.
Betting Splits Strategy Summary
In the Falcons-Buccaneers game, the strongest betting splits signal points towards the Under. The heavy handle percentage on the Under, despite a minority of tickets, suggests that smart money is leaning towards a lower-scoring game. While the spread and moneyline are heavily skewed towards the Buccaneers, the lack of significant line movement or handle discrepancies indicates that the current prices are fairly efficient. Remember that betting splits are just one factor to consider in your handicapping process. Always factor in injuries, weather, and team-specific trends before making your final decision.
