The Dolphins are road favorites against the Jets, but betting splits reveal sharp disagreement with the public on the moneyline. Is there value on the home dog?
TL;DR – Today’s Betting Splits Breakdown
The Dolphins are favored on the road against the Jets. Betting splits show a strong contrarian signal on the moneyline, with sharps appearing to fade the heavily public Miami side. The total also shows a possible sharp lean on the Under.
Game Snapshot
The Miami Dolphins (5-7) travel to MetLife Stadium to face the New York Jets (3-9) on Sunday, December 7, 2025. Kickoff is at 6:00 PM EST. The weather forecast calls for overcast skies and temperatures in the mid-30s. The Dolphins are currently favored by 3 points, and the total is 41.5.
Today’s Sharpest Betting Signals
- Moneyline: Sharps are fading the public, who are heavily backing the Dolphins.
- Total: The Under is drawing significant sharp action, suggesting potential value.
Spread – Snapshot & Signals
- Spread: Dolphins -2.5 (-120)
- Ticket %: 62% on Dolphins
- Handle %: 77% on Dolphins
- Signal: The public is heavily backing the Dolphins, but there is no clear sharp signal.
Moneyline – Snapshot & Signals
- Moneyline: Dolphins -155
- Ticket %: 70% on Dolphins
- Handle %: 44% on Dolphins
- Signal: Strong Fade the Public on the Dolphins. The public is heavily backing Miami, but the handle is significantly lower, indicating sharp money on the Jets.
Total – Snapshot & Signals
- Total: Over/Under 41.5
- Ticket %: 53% on the Over
- Handle %: 83% on the Under
- Signal: Smart Money Lean on the Under. Despite a majority of tickets on the Over, the vast majority of handle is on the Under, indicating a possible sharp play.
Spread Opportunity Analysis
The spread market shows heavy public backing of the Dolphins, but no clear sharp signal to counter it. The lack of strong sharp action suggests the current line is relatively efficient. Bettors should rely more on their own team and matchup analysis rather than splits-based signals here.
Moneyline Opportunity Analysis
The moneyline presents a potential contrarian opportunity. The public is heavily backing the Dolphins, but the handle is significantly lower, suggesting sharp money is on the Jets. This Fade the Public signal could indicate value on the Jets moneyline at +130. However, remember that fading the public is just one factor, and the Jets are still underdogs for a reason.
Total Opportunity Analysis
The total market shows a possible sharp lean on the Under. The high handle percentage on the Under, despite a majority of tickets on the Over, suggests smart money is anticipating a lower-scoring game. Consider the Under 41.5, but remember that weather and game script can significantly impact the total.
Betting Splits Strategy Summary
This week’s Dolphins-Jets game offers a couple of interesting splits-based signals. The strongest signal is on the moneyline, where sharps appear to be fading the heavily public Dolphins. This could present a contrarian opportunity for those who believe the Jets are being undervalued. The total also shows a possible sharp lean on the Under. As always, remember that betting splits are just one piece of the puzzle. Combine these signals with your own research and analysis to make informed betting decisions. And always practice responsible bankroll management.
