Tampa Bay is a big home favorite against New Orleans, and the betting public is all over the Bucs. Is there value fading the crowd?
TL;DR – Today’s Betting Splits Breakdown
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are heavily favored at home against the New Orleans Saints. The public is strongly backing the Buccaneers on the moneyline and spread, while sharp money is leaning towards the Under. Consider fading the public on the Buccaneers moneyline and spread, and monitor the total closely for further sharp action.
Game Snapshot
The New Orleans Saints (2-10) visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5) at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL, on Sunday, December 7, 2025. Kickoff is at 6:00 PM EST. The Buccaneers are 8.5-point favorites, and the total is 41.5. Weather forecast calls for overcast skies with a temperature around 73°F and winds at 12 mph.
Today’s Sharpest Betting Signals
- Total: Sharp money is on the Under, with 67% of the handle on Under and only 44% of tickets.
- Moneyline: The public is heavily backing the Buccaneers, creating a potential fade opportunity.
- Spread: Similar to the moneyline, the public is heavily on the Buccaneers, suggesting a potential fade opportunity.
Spread – Snapshot & Signals
- Current Line: Buccaneers -8.5 (-110)
- Ticket Percentage: 71% on Buccaneers
- Handle Percentage: 73% on Buccaneers
- Public Side: Buccaneers
- Smart Money Lean: None apparent
- Fade the Public: Yes, on Buccaneers
- Signal Strength: Moderate
Moneyline – Snapshot & Signals
- Current Line: Buccaneers -425
- Ticket Percentage: 95% on Buccaneers
- Handle Percentage: 88% on Buccaneers
- Public Side: Buccaneers
- Smart Money Lean: None apparent
- Fade the Public: Yes, on Buccaneers
- Signal Strength: Moderate
Total – Snapshot & Signals
- Current Line: 41.5 (-110)
- Ticket Percentage: 56% on Over
- Handle Percentage: 67% on Under
- Public Side: Over
- Smart Money Lean: Under
- Fade the Public: No
- Signal Strength: Strong
Spread Opportunity Analysis
With the public heavily backing the Buccaneers -8.5, there might be an opportunity to fade the public and consider the Saints +8.5. However, without strong sharp money signals, this is a moderate-risk proposition. Consider the Saints if you believe the Buccaneers are overvalued by the public.
Moneyline Opportunity Analysis
The Buccaneers’ moneyline is heavily skewed towards public bets. Fading the public here means betting on the Saints at +330 or higher. This is a contrarian play, as the public overwhelmingly expects a Buccaneers win. Assess your risk tolerance before considering a bet on the Saints moneyline.
Total Opportunity Analysis
The sharp money is on the Under 41.5, with a significant handle percentage backing it despite a majority of tickets on the Over. This suggests that larger, potentially sharper bets are influencing the market towards the Under. If you align with sharp bettors, consider the Under.
Betting Splits Strategy Summary
This game presents a few interesting betting splits scenarios. The public is heavily backing the Buccaneers on the moneyline and spread, which could present fade opportunities. The strongest signal is on the total, where sharp money is leaning towards the Under. Remember that betting splits are just one factor; always consider injuries, team matchups, and your own analysis before placing a bet. Be disciplined with your bankroll and avoid chasing losses.
