The Jets are getting the majority of handle on the moneyline as a home underdog against the Dolphins, signaling potential sharp action. The under is also seeing heavy handle despite even ticket splits.
TL:DR – Today’s Betting Splits Breakdown
The Week 14 matchup between the Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets presents intriguing betting splits, particularly on the moneyline and total. While the Dolphins are favored, the Jets are drawing significant handle on the moneyline, suggesting potential sharp action on the home underdog. The under is also seeing heavy handle, indicating a lean towards a lower-scoring game despite even ticket splits.
Game Snapshot
The Miami Dolphins (5-7) visit the New York Jets (3-9) on Sunday, December 7, 2025, at 6:00 PM EST at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ. The weather forecast projects an overcast day with temperatures around 34.7°F, humidity at 69%, and minimal wind. The Dolphins are favored by 3 points, with the moneyline at -155 for Miami and +130 for New York. The total is set at 41.5 points.
Today’s Sharpest Betting Signals
- Moneyline: The Jets are attracting a higher percentage of handle (57%) compared to tickets (31%), indicating potential sharp money backing the home underdog at +130.
- Total: The Under is seeing a significant handle percentage (86%) despite a nearly even split in tickets (49%), suggesting smart money is leaning towards a lower-scoring affair.
Spread – Snapshot & Signals
- Spread: Dolphins -2.5 / Jets +2.5
- Current Line: Dolphins -2.5 (-120) / Jets +2.5 (+100)
- Ticket Split: 66% on Dolphins, 34% on Jets
- Handle Split: 82% on Dolphins, 18% on Jets
- Public Side: Dolphins
- Smart Money Lean: None apparent
- Fade the Public: No clear signal
- The Dolphins are heavily favored by the public, with the vast majority of both tickets and handle on their side. There isn’t a clear smart money signal or fade the public opportunity on the spread.
Moneyline – Snapshot & Signals
- Moneyline: Dolphins -155 / Jets +130
- Ticket Split: 69% on Dolphins, 31% on Jets
- Handle Split: 43% on Dolphins, 57% on Jets
- Public Side: Dolphins
- Smart Money Lean: Jets
- Fade the Public: Moderate signal
- The Jets are receiving a disproportionately high percentage of the handle compared to tickets, suggesting that sharp bettors are taking the home underdog at +130. This profiles as a moderate fade-the-public opportunity.
Total – Snapshot & Signals
- Total: 41.5
- Current Line: Over 41.5 (-110) / Under 41.5 (-110)
- Ticket Split: 51% on Over, 49% on Under
- Handle Split: 14% on Over, 86% on Under
- Public Side: Over
- Smart Money Lean: Under
- Fade the Public: Strong Signal
- The Under is attracting a significant majority of the handle despite a near even split in tickets, indicating a strong smart money lean towards a lower-scoring game. This profiles as a strong fade-the-public opportunity.
Spread Opportunity Analysis
The spread market is heavily tilted towards the Dolphins, with both tickets and handle overwhelmingly backing Miami. With no clear smart money signals or line movement to suggest otherwise, the spread appears to be efficiently priced at Dolphins -2.5. Bettors looking for an edge might want to focus on other markets in this game.
Moneyline Opportunity Analysis
The moneyline presents a potential contrarian opportunity. While the public is heavily backing the Dolphins, the Jets are receiving a significant portion of the handle, suggesting that sharp bettors see value in the home underdog at +130. This could be an attractive option for those looking to fade the public and capitalize on a potentially inflated price.
Total Opportunity Analysis
The total market shows a strong divergence between tickets and handle, with the vast majority of handle on the Under despite a near-even ticket split. This suggests that sharp money is driving the action on the Under, making it a potentially attractive option for those looking to align with smart money and fade the public perception of a higher-scoring game. Given the weather conditions, this could be a reasonable lean.
Betting Splits Strategy Summary
The betting splits for the Dolphins-Jets game highlight a few potential opportunities. The strongest signal comes from the total, where the heavy handle on the Under suggests smart money is anticipating a low-scoring game. The moneyline also presents a contrarian angle, with the Jets attracting significant handle as a home underdog. While the spread market appears fairly priced, bettors should always combine these signals with their own analysis of the matchup, injuries, and other relevant factors before placing a wager. Remember that betting splits are just one piece of the puzzle, and disciplined bankroll management is crucial for long-term success.
