Tampa Bay is seeing overwhelming support on the moneyline, while the total market is showing potential smart money on the Under.
TL:DR – Today’s Betting Splits Breakdown
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are heavily favored against the New Orleans Saints, and the betting splits reflect this, with the public backing the Buccaneers on the moneyline. However, the total market presents a possible smart money situation, with a significant handle percentage on the Under despite a nearly even ticket split.
Game Snapshot
The New Orleans Saints (2-10) visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5) on Sunday, December 7, 2025, at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. The weather forecast predicts overcast conditions with a temperature of 73°F. Kickoff is at 6:00 PM EST.
Today’s Sharpest Betting Signals
- Total: The Under 41.5 is drawing a disproportionate share of the handle (71%) compared to tickets (49%), suggesting potential smart money.
Spread – Snapshot & Signals
- Spread: Tampa Bay -8.5
- Ticket Split: 71% on Tampa Bay
- Handle Split: 71% on Tampa Bay
- Public Side: Tampa Bay
- Fade the Public: Yes, but not strongly.
- Signal: The spread market shows balanced action, with the public heavily favoring the Buccaneers, but no strong signals of sharp money or line movement to suggest an edge.
Moneyline – Snapshot & Signals
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay -425
- Ticket Split: 95% on Tampa Bay
- Handle Split: 87% on Tampa Bay
- Public Side: Tampa Bay
- Fade the Public: Yes, but not strongly.
- Signal: Overwhelming public support for the Buccaneers on the moneyline. This creates a fade opportunity, but with no line movement, the edge is thin.
Total – Snapshot & Signals
- Total: 41.5
- Ticket Split: 51% on the Over
- Handle Split: 71% on the Under
- Public Side: Over
- Smart Money Lean: Under
- Signal: The Under is receiving a significant handle percentage despite the majority of tickets being on the Over. This suggests potential smart money on the Under.
Spread Opportunity Analysis
The spread market is heavily public-sided, with the majority of tickets and handle backing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. At -8.5, the Buccaneers need to win by more than 8 points to cover. Given their 7-5 record and the Saints’ struggles, the public likely sees this as a comfortable win for Tampa Bay. However, with no significant line movement or sharp money indicators, this profiles as a fairly efficient market. If you believe the Saints can keep it close, a contrarian play on New Orleans +8.5 could be considered, but the data doesn’t strongly support it.
Moneyline Opportunity Analysis
The moneyline is overwhelmingly popular with public bettors on the Buccaneers at -425. While Tampa Bay is the clear favorite, the high price means you’re risking a lot to win a little. A small percentage of tickets and handle are on the Saints at +330, presenting a contrarian opportunity. However, the significant gap between tickets and handle on the Buccaneers suggests the public is willing to lay the price, making it a risky proposition to fade them without stronger signals. Given the lack of significant line movement, this market appears fairly priced, and the risk may outweigh the reward.
Total Opportunity Analysis
The total market presents a more interesting scenario. While the majority of tickets are on the Over (51%), a significant 71% of the handle is on the Under. This discrepancy between tickets and handle suggests that larger, potentially sharper, bets are backing the Under. At 41.5, this could indicate an expectation of a lower-scoring game than the public anticipates. If you align with this view, the Under presents a reasonable opportunity. However, it’s essential to consider factors beyond the splits, such as team offensive and defensive stats, pace of play, and any key injuries that could impact scoring.
Betting Splits Strategy Summary
For the Saints vs. Buccaneers game, the strongest signal comes from the total market, where the Under is drawing a disproportionate amount of handle compared to tickets, suggesting potential smart money. While the spread and moneyline markets are heavily public-sided, they lack strong signals of sharp money or line movement, making them less attractive from a betting splits perspective. Remember that betting splits are just one factor to consider in your handicapping process. Combine these signals with your own analysis of the game to make informed betting decisions, and always practice responsible bankroll management.
